Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Trade Options

The NBA trading deadline is approximately 21 hours away. The Mavs trade for Jason Kidd was a fantastic move but there are other moves the Mavs could make to either fill holes on the roster or upgrade the roster entirely. Here are 5 trades that could potentially be pulled off that would offer the Mavs some help, in order from the least significant to the most.

5. Devean George and J.J. Barea to Chicago for Chris Duhon
Duhon is a legitimate backup point guard. He is still young but also an experienced, smart player (4 years including 2 Final Fours at Duke plus 4 years in the NBA). Not a particularly good shooter but he's capable of knocking down the occasional shot. More to the point, he is an excellent defender, a great passer (4+ assists in 24 minutes per game), and a very good athlete for the position. He is a free agent at the end of the season and will look to move out of Chicago. As a bonus, the Mavs get to rid themselves of George, who has to be about the most hated man in any Dallas locker room these days. JJ is a nice story but he's never going to be more than a 3rd stringer while Duhon is a real number 2.

4. Jerry Stackhouse and a possible future pick to Sacramento for Ron Artest
I'll go on the record as saying I despise Artest. He's a goon whose talents have been VASTLY overrated. Where many people see defensive prowess and a low post presence, I see a bully who just overpowers weaker opponents. He is also a nut case that you cannot depend on. In fact I think the case could be made that Ron Ron is legally retarded. That said, he's a physical, tough minded player that can guard multiple positions and does operate a lot in the low post. Because the Mavs do not have a low post presence at the 5, adding a small forward who posts up would be a welcome addition. I'm not sure how well Artest can run with Kidd so I'd be more willing to bring in a slashing, athletic swing man but this could be a decent option. Trade rumors have the Kings getting players like Linas Kleiza and salary cap relief so the low price of Jerry Stackhouse could possibly get it done.

3. Jerry Stackhouse to Memphis for Kyle Lowry, Hakim Warrick, and Brian Cardinal
I love the idea of this trade for two reasons: a.) It would address two holes on the roster and b.) if it were to go through, it would be a shining example of how great an owner Mark Cuban is and how terrible some of the other owners in the league are. Lowry and Warrick are two very young, unproven players that are currently caught in numbers crunch, particularly Lowry. Lowry was a late 1st round pick last season and is now the 4th young point guard on the roster behind Mike Conley, Juan Carlos Navarro, and Javaris Crittenden. Warrick isn't playing and part of that might be because he hasn't lived up to his potential. Lowry would be a solid backup to Kidd who could, potentially, be the guy when Kidd moves on. Warrick is a little small for a backup post player, but he's extremely athletic and mobile and would give the Mavs not only a quicker option on defense but a guy who would run with Kidd. The key to this is Cardinal. His contract is an embarrassment for the Memphis franchise. He's essentially not played for 2 years and still has 3 years left on his contract for around 20 million dollars. Memphis is looking for one thing and one thing only: salary cap space. The Memphis owner is attempting to cut payroll in order to make the team more viable for selling. This was evident in the Pau Gasol trade in which the Lakers picked up one of the better young big men in the league for 3 draft picks and expiring contracts. Have a look at the numbers:

Jerry Stackhouse is owed approximately 16 million dollars over the next 3 seasons. At the minimum, the triad of Lowry, Cardinal, and Warrick are owed 24.8 million dollars over the same period, and up to 32.7 million if all of the options are picked up on Lowry and Warrick. At the least, the Grizzlies would save themselves almost 9 million dollars. Add to it the fact that the Grizz would probably buy Stackhouse out for between 10 and 12 million dollars, which Stack would certainly agree to (and would probably come right back to Dallas with a big “screw you” to the NBA), Memphis could save themselves between 13 and 22 million dollars.

2. Jason Terry and Devean George to Charlotte for Jason Richardson and Jeff McInnis
I am a HUGE fan of Jason Richardson. He is a physical freak, a 6-7 shooting guard who is as strong and built as most NBA power forwards yet still with the speed of a much smaller player. He can shoot from the outside (41% shooter from beyond the arc this year) who also spends a lot of time in the paint dunking in your face. He can be a lock down defender when properly motivated and he is the definition of a hard nosed, tough player. He doesn’t get into fights or cause problems like Artest but he has just enough attitude and toughness to convey the message. Jason Terry has a bad contract so I think it would be a hard sell to get Charlotte to take him on. However, it’s not nearly as big as Richardson’s. JRich will make 11.1 million dollars this year, 12.2 mil next year, 13.3 the year after that, and 14.4 in the final year of his contract. Charlotte’s owner is notoriously cheap and that team has failed to realize the potential it has. Terry would work well off of a legit low post player like Emeka Okafor in Charlotte than he does here. McInnis and George are only involved in this to make the trade work under the cap, though McInnis is a decent backup at the point, something the Mavs need regardless of whether or not Terry stays in Dallas.

If Charlotte is unwilling to take on Terry’s contract, the Mavs could also push this trade through by including either Cleveland or Orlando, two teams that would have an interest in Terry’s scoring ability, who would send expiring contracts (and perhaps a draft pick) to Charlotte.

1. Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse to Philadelphia for Andre Igoudala and Samuel Dalembert
This is a tough one (from both sides) but follow me for a minute here. Personally, I think Josh Howard has significantly regressed this season. Perhaps with Jason Kidd running the show instead of Devin Harris, he will come out of his funk. But Howard made his name here by playing defense and slashing to the basket. He’s done neither of those consistently since he got his big contract. He is essentially a streaky jump shooter now and shows no signs of turning back from that path. On another team that might not be so bad but when the other two big scorers on the team are jumpshooters as well (like Dirk and Terry are), he looks bad.

Andre Igoudala is just the opposite of Howard. He is a slasher with an inconsistent jump shot, though he can knock a shot down when he needs to. He has had far too much pressure put on him in Philly after the trades of Allen Iverson and Chris Webber. He is not a franchise player which the Sixers badly want him to be. On a good team, however, he could focus more on defense (where he could be an all league player), and dunking in your eye with both power and finesse. In addition, he would be a fantastic running mate for Jason Kidd.

Dalembert has a terrible contract that rivals Erick Dampier’s. He’ll be paid between 10 and 12 million dollars per season for the next four years. Philly DESPARATELY wants to clear his contract off the books. Dalembert would give the Mavs a great 1-2 punch at the center position, with Dampier being the stronger, physical defender against guys like Shaq and Dalembert being called upon to guard quicker, more mobile players like Amare Stoudemire (not to mention Dalembert is a much better offensive player than Damp). Together, Dalembert would fill the hole left by Diop and Igoudala would compliment Kidd (and Dirk) much better than Howard.

From the Mavs perspective, I can’t see this going through. Howard has been propped up as a legitimate option and borderline All Star that the Mavs both like and depend on. The Mavs have invested in him and feel he is a major part of their success. In truth, on another team, he probably could be a borderline All Star, but here his game doesn’t work as well. At the same time, I’m not sure how Sixer management would sell this move to their fans. However, I still feel this is an option when you consider the salary cap.

As I said before, Philly wants to get rid of Dalembert’s contract. In addition, consider the fact that Igoudala is a restricted free agent at the end of this season. That means he can sign with any team he wants which will force the Sixers to either match the offer or let him walk away without any return. The problem is, Igoudala isn’t worth the contract he is sure to get, which will end up being somewhere between 9 and 12 million dollars per year. Philly obviously doesn’t think Andre is worth this amount or they would have signed him to an extension this off season. At the same time, the Sixers can’t let him walk away for nothing. It is possible that, in an effort to avoid a potential “Catch 22” situation, Sixers management would be willing to trade Igoudala. (By the way, it should be noted that over paying Igoudala isn’t as much of a concern for the Mavs because they’re already both in contention and over the salary cap. Philly is in a bad spot because they stink and need cap space to get better but also need to keep Igoudala on the roster.) With the added incentive of a team taking on Dalembert’s deal, Philly could be willing to take on an All Star, Howard, with an already defined contract, and the cap relief they would receive. As it stands, this deal would add approximately 7 million dollars to the Sixers salary cap over the next 4 years. However, this is before the team guys out Stackhouse (saving between 4 and 6 million dollars), and they hand out what will certainly be an excessive extension to Igoudala, which would probably cost them at least 20 to 40 million dollars over that time period.

This would be a bold move for both teams and would likely draw a great deal of criticism from the fan bases of both franchises. In the long run, though, this would give the Mavs both a slasher and legitimate center, both of which are badly needed, and allow the Sixers to be a player in the free agent market next summer.

Of all of these moves, I think numbers 5 and 3 are the most likely to go through. While some of the other moves would make a much more significant adjustment to the roster, any of them would add something and make the Mavs stronger as they push themselves towards the big goal of a title.

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