How to Mix the Mavs Part III: Deciding What to Do

It's been almost two months since the last installment of "How to Fix the Mavs" and a lot has taken place. The team played incredibly well without Josh Howard, Dirk has forced his way into the MVP race, Jason Terry may be headed to the All Star game, and what was a 2 and 7 record has now turned into 19 and 12 and just a hair out of second place in the West. The players have adjusted pretty well to Coach Carlisle's style and things are looking significantly better than they were two months ago.

The question is, is that a good thing? There's no worse place to be in the world of sports than stuck in the middle. Obviously a good team can be content to contend for a title. And a bad team, as awful as they may be, can always rely on the opportunity to rebuild. But a team that's somewhere in the middle is in a bad way. Cut bait and start over and you alienate your fan base and perhaps whatever players you decide to keep around. Hold on too long and you set your franchise back three to five years when you could have been improving. The middle of the pack is a tough place to be.

I believe this is the situation in which Mark Cuban finds his Mavericks right now. The run that they’ve been on lately, winning 17 of 22 games, has been impressive. Dirk is playing as well as he’s ever played and Jason Kidd looks fantastic, not to mention the surprise emergence of Jason Terry that has taken place over the last month. Right now there might not be three guards in the entire NBA who are playing as good perimeter offense as The Jet. However, for the most part, they haven’t been playing against stellar competition. With the exception of the Christmas Day win at Portland, the Mavs haven’t beaten any of the better teams in the league. They’ve stayed close, hung tight with the Spurs and the Lakers and played a decent game against Utah with the chips stacked against them, but ultimately fell short in each contest. To me they appear to be a team that is better than about 20 to 22 teams in the league, but not good enough to take out the other 8 to 10 teams. They are the Best of the Rest, so to speak, after the Celtics, Lakers, Cavs, and Spurs of the world. That means they aren’t true contenders for a title and quite possibly aren’t really capable of advancing past the first round in the playoffs.

The next six weeks are going to be incredibly important for this team. In fact, I think it’s safe to say that the decisions made in this time period will determine the path of the franchise, for better or worse, for the next five or ten years. Mark Cuban and the ever-more-useless Donnie Nelson have to be extremely realistic and pragmatic in their approach to what to do with this team and the players on the roster. No stones can be left unturned in their search for how to best equip this team both for the now and the future. There are four ways to look at this team and ways to act accordingly.

1. This team is a player away from being a legit title contender:
If you subscribe to this theory, you buy into the impressive work the Mavs have done over the last 22 games and believe that their strong play will continue. The team as is probably lands in the 4th or 5th playoff spot and has a chance to make a run if they peak at the right time. What the team needs is to add a piece or two that will really push them over the top.

It’s a good season to be in this position, if in fact this is where the Mavs truly are. There are a lot of teams who are trying to get rid of their overpriced Second Wheels, like Corey Maggette and Gerald Wallace, and will likely take 30 cents on the dollar. If you’re willing to commit to overpaying a role player because what he does is what you need, there’s a pretty decent market. Should Cuban decide this is where the position the team is in, there are any number of players that could be acquired that could/should push the Mavs back into the true contenders.

2. This team needs to make a major move to make themselves contenders:
If you subscribe to this theory then you must agree that the Mavs have to trade one or more of the team’s Big Three (Dirk, Josh, Kidd). These are the only three players on the roster that could bring something significant enough in return as to push the team over the edge. Realistically, trading Kidd probably wouldn’t bring back enough to make the trade worthwhile. Trading a superstar like Dirk almost NEVER works out for a franchise losing the player. Just ask Toronto how they like the Vince Carter trade or New Orleans how the Baron Davis trade worked out. In the NBA, trading a superstar is usually the last option.

That leaves Josh Howard. In my opinion, the Mavs are a better team without Josh on the floor. The ball moves better, the team as a whole takes better shots, and the IQ of the team goes up. It’s not that Howard is a bad player or even a bad guy, off court issues aside. It’s that he doesn’t compliment the team very well. Josh needs to be on a team that has either a low post player who scores easy buckets with his back to the basket or another swingman who gets his points by slashing. Trading Josh is the logical move to make if this is the theory the Mavs opt to believe in.

3. This team needs to rebuild right now
If you subscribe to this theory you believe the Mavs need to make a handful of moves now and start the rebuilding process immediately. Josh Howard could be moved for several lesser pieces, maybe a draft pick. You could sell Jason Terry at an all time high right now with the way he’s playing. Jason Kidd is still a top 10 point guard with an expiring contract to boot, a great trading chip for a number of teams. Even Erick Dampier could provide a lot of help to a contending team that needs front court depth. Perhaps it actually is time to trade Dirk and start over.

Should the Mavs buy into this theory, these moves have to be made NOW. Cuban must strike while the iron is hot with Terry, move Josh Howard immediately, and use Kidd before his contract expires in the off season. If you make a lot of moves in a short amount of time, you are likely to add some pieces that can pay off in a year or two.

4. This team needs to cut salary and be ready for the feeding frenzy in 2010:
If you subscribe to this theory you’re conceding that the Mavs as constructed cannot win a title and the players here do not hold enough value to bring in quality players to rebuild with. In 2010 Lebron James, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire and several others have the opportunity to become free agents. Just about any team that doesn’t legitimately feel they can win a title in the next two years is doing everything they can to become players in the free agent market that summer. This is going to leave a number of teams very unhappy, especially considering that each of these player’s current teams will be able to offer considerably more money than any other franchise.

But if this is the path Cuban feels the Mavs should take, it means the team will be almost completely and totally gutted. Kidd, Howard, Terry, Dampier, and a host of others will be moved for next to nothing except expiring contracts and even Dirk might be subject to trades, though I suspect Cuban would hold on to Dirk to team with whichever young superstar the team signs in 2010. This is a risky way to approach the next couple of years. Tanking games is a tough sell for fans and players alike. And in the end if you can’t convince Lebron or Wade to sign on for less than they can get at home, you’re in serious trouble. But it’s an option nonetheless.

I’m not completely sure which theory I subscribe to, though I have to say I’m falling somewhere between 1 and 2. I think Josh needs to be traded in order for this team to progress but I don’t want to see him given away. If a deal can be struck to add a couple of quality young players and a pick in exchange for Josh, I’d be all over it and I’d be searching out the teams who are trying to cut salary to see if I could grab a quality swingman or big man for cheap. Regardless of what happens, this is a critical time in Mavericks history and the moves made (or not made) will have a tremendous impact for years to come.