THE RECAP
Last year Dallas had its worst season since 1999-2000...and still finished with over 50 wins and a playoff berth. Still, the season was marred by all kinds of issues, both on the court and off. If they weren't before, the Mavs officially became a jump shooting team and reaped the benefits and consequences of that. When their shots were falling, they won. When they were off, they lost. Period.
Issues with head coach Avery Johnson abounded. His lack of a consistent rotation had pretty much everyone not named Dirk or Josh guessing what their role would be night in and night out.
Avery abandoned what had made the Mavs successful in their two previous seasons by reigning the offense in even more and dictating every single play of the game. His refusal to make adjustments often left the team in disarray as the players made vain attempts to execute a game plan that was obviously ineffective to everyone except the head coach. Possibly worst of all, Avery routinely threw his players under the bus in press conferences and interviews, refusing to take on any blame for the team's struggles. All of this eventually led to a team that no longer listened to its coach.Mid way through the season, the Mavs made a dramatic move that may end up drastically affecting the direction of the franchise. Jason Kidd was brought in to run the offense in exchange for Devin Harris and a ton of spare parts. The reasoning for this trade was that, while Harris is younger, faster, and more apt to score points, Kidd was the right guy to "quarterback" a team that, at the time, seemed to have enough firepower and lacked someone to really run the show. All of this was passed primarily on the fact that Avery Johnson refused to turn Harris loose and allow him to play the game he was equipped to play and that he would be more willing to trust a top 5 point guard of all time like Jason Kidd.
In the end, the Kidd experiment failed if for no other reason than Avery. Just like he had with Harris, Avery refused to allow Kidd to play the game, instead trying to call every play from the bench and force the team into a grind it out half court offense that none of the players were suited to play. Kidd and Dirk seemed to click instantly but the rest of the team trailed far behind the level of excellence the two superstars displayed. Kidd also had GREAT difficulty defending the younger, quicker point guards of the Western Conference, such as Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Tony Parker. The team's lack of true depth was exposed as backups Jerry Stackhouse, Jason Terry, Devean George, and a host of others failed to provide any kind of consistent punch off the bench. Ultimately,
while Dirk delivered perhaps a better season than the one before in which he won the MVP award, the team faltered and for the second straight season, bombed out in the first round of the playoffs.THE OFF SEASON
It was, to say the least, a tumultuous offseason for Dallas. First, quickly after their playoff exit (as in approximately 2 hours later on the plane ride home), owner Mark Cuban fired Avery Johnson. It was a sad day for a lot of Mavs fans because at one point, Avery could have been considered one of the best young coaches in the league. His ego, pride, stubbornness, or sheer stupidity kept him from achieving a great deal with the Mavs. His firing was widely considered a relief to players and fans alike.
Then the Josh Howard saga really took off. Just before the playoffs started, Josh made some comments on a local radio show describing his occasional use of marijuana in the off season. Later, after a Mavs devastating defeat, he threw a huge birthday party for himself which several teammates attended.
During the summer he was arrested for drag racing in his hometown of Winston-Salem, North Carolina. Then, just before training camp opened, a video was released on the web in which Howard disrespected the National Anthem and generally made a fool of himself. It was a seriously of events that added to the already prevalent notion that Josh Howard has the mental capacity of a rabbit. While Cuban and GM Donnie Nelson talked about making big moves just as the off season began, none really took place. Rick Carlisle, a good if uninspiring choice, was hired to replace Avery Johnson. The roster, however, took on very little change. Some of the aging veterans who manned the end of the bench in the previous season, such as Juwan Howard and Jamaal Magloire, were let go, and replaced by younger, more athletic players. James Singleton, Shawne Williams, and particularly Gerald Green were viewed as inexpensive options who could pay big dividends. Antoine Wright and Jose Juan Barea were resigned, as was the once hated, now apparently needed (?) Devean George. The Mavs came into camp without making a single significant roster move.
THE FORECAST
Most national (and all but the most homerish of local) media members have predicted a mediocre season for the Mavs, picked to finish somewhere between 6th and 9th place in the Western Conference. The team is seen as over the hill and past their prime, a collection of players that has been exposed over the last 2 years and hasn't changed much. Almost every commentator has stated that their window of opportunity for winning a championship has closed.
MY TAKE
Coming into this season, I am cautiously optimistic that the Mavs could be contending for the Western Conference championship...but doubtful that they will actually wind up making a real playoff run.
I'll start with the positives.
1. I really like that the MBT (Mavs Brain Trust of Mark Cuban, Donnie Nelson, and Rick Carlisle) got rid of the old collection of washed up players at the end of the bench and replaced them with young kids who are looking to prove something. Brandon Bass was a HUGE surprise last year and I believe his impact impressed upon the MBT to bring in some fresh blood. James Singleton is a nice complimentary player who can clean the boards and be a lock down defender when needed. Shawne Williams could potentially turn into a strong contributor and if he learns how to run on the break, his athleticism combined with Jason Kidd's court vision could translate to a big return.
But the key guy in all of this is Gerald Green. Green has now played on 4 teams in 4 years. Up to this point, he has never been able to take the INCREDIBLE amount of God given talent and athletic ability that he is overflowing with and turn it into actual, consistent results on the floor.
Whether it is attitude, immaturity, or just not knowing how to make it happen yet, he's had trouble sticking around anywhere he's been. However, he seems to recognize that this is likely his last chance in the NBA. Don't get me wrong. Green could absolutely tank and provide nothing this season or in any season to come. But if Green ever figures out how to turn his potential into actual results, he has the talent to be the next Tracy McGrady. This is a kid who could become a perennial All Star and a 20+ point per game scorer. He is insanely athletic (2007 Slam Dunk Champ) and has the tools to become a lock down defender. And if he doesn't pan out, it costs the Mavs nothing.2. I am glad to see that Rick Carlisle has at least left the possibility open to making Antoine Wright the starting 2 guard for the duration of the season. Since Michael Finley was cut after the 2004-05 season, the Mavs have continually started aging, spare veterans such as Adrian Griffin and Eddie Jones at the shooting guard position, broken up only by the occasional Jerry Stackhouse or Jason Terry sighting. It has, essentially, been a lost position. I have no idea whether or not Wright is actually capable of being a quality starting 2 guard in this league, but I do know that he has the potential to be just that. He's young, he's athletic, he works incredibly hard on the defensive end, and he's capable of hitting the outside shot and slashing to the basket. He's the best option the Mavs have had at shooting guard since Finley was cut.
3. Whether or not Rick Carlisle has anything significant to offer as a head coach or not, he's GOT to be better than Avery Johnson was in his last season. In all honesty, my obese dog Ali could do a better job as head coach than Avery did last year. Seriously. Carlisle has said all the right things so far and that's a change from the Little General who made a habit of saying the exact opposite of what he needed to say, whether he actually believed it or not. Carlisle says he plans to turn the offense over to Jason Kidd, who has been the best or possibly second best point guard over the last decade, and his strategy is to us a Motion Offense, which I'm a huge fan of.
And now the bad.
1. This team still has the EXACT same flaws that led to it's blowing of the 2006 NBA Championship. They still rely too heavily on the jumpshot. With the exception of Dirk and Kidd, they still lack smart players with high basketball IQs. They still do not have a consistent post presence or a slashing swing man. They still have a lot of guys who THINK they're good outside shooters who really have no business launching the number of long jumpers that they end up taking. And they still lack a serious tough guy who gets to the free throw line consistently and isn't afraid to knock another guy down when it needs to happen.
2. The Mavs are relying on some players to do some things they've never consistently done before or haven't done in years. This applies particularly to Josh Howard, Jason Terry, and Jerry Stackhouse.
Josh Howard, even before his INCREDIBLE string of off court issues, was quickly losing the confidence of everyone involved with the organization. The fact of the matter is, Josh earned his 10 million dollar a year contract by playing defense, slashing to the basket, and just being active in every phase of the game. And he hasn't done any of those things on any kind of consistent basis for the last season and a half. This doesn't even take into account his complete lack of mental processing when he's on the court (or apparently off).
Jason Terry is a solid scorer and a seriously clutch shooter who has had a lot of success in those roles for the Mavs over the last 4 years. Unfortunately for both Terry and the team, he has no position. He is too short to play and defend the shooting guard position.
And he is one of the absolute most DREADFUL "point guards" I have ever seen. No starting caliber point guard in the NBA has more trouble with the simplest of things, such as the entry pass. When Terry is running the offense, there is no flow and no strong decision making. He often dribbles the shot clock down to 6 before taking an ill advised, long distance shot. And Jerry Stackhouse is borderline useless at this point. I can predict exactly what Stack will do this season: every 5th or 6th game, he will "break out" for 15 or 20 points and make a major impact on the game; the other 4 or 5 games in that stretch he will take numerous bad shots, give away a ton of turnovers, and look absolutely lost on defense; his already dropping free throw attempts will drop even further; and he will miss between 30 and 40 games this season. There is perhaps nothing sadder than watching a slasher age. And Stack is aging FAST.
All of this seems to go unnoticed to the MBT, however. The Mavs are depending on Howard to slash and play defense, on Terry to score consistently and run the point when Kidd is out, and on Stack to show up each night and provide big baskets. And if those things happen, then that's great. The Mavs will be hard to beat. But it is beyond me to understand how Carlise, Nelson, and Cuban can expect these things out of those players when it hasn't been shown over the last 2 years.
3. It really bothers me to see the GAPING HOLES the Mavs left on their roster going into the season.
The team brought back Gana Diop to backup Dampier at the center position, which I was in favor of. Yet they have neglected to bring in another player who is capable of coming in when both Diop and Damp inevitably get into foul trouble. This means that Dirk and Bass will spend time at the 5, which neither of them are good at.
As I have been complaining about FOR THREE YEARS now, the Mavs did not go out to get a slashing, quality, starting caliber shooting guard. This team has been in DESPARATE need of a guy who can score 15 points per game, all going toward the basket and getting to the free throw line. (Corey Maggette has been the PERFECT player for this role and it boggles my mind why the Mavs haven't made a move for him during this time).
And perhaps most troubling of all is the point guard position. Jason Kidd is old. He's still got 2, maybe 3 good years left in him. But the fact is, he's slowing down and he's now playing in a conference dominated by quick, young point guards. To combat this issue, a solid, young, quick point guard needed to be brought in to backup Kidd.
Instead, the Mavs resigned JJ Barea to a 3 year contract. This signing inspired me to go out and try to make the roster myself because if JJ Barea can get a 3 year contract in the NBA, surely I could as well. JJB has absolutely no business being a backup on a decent NBA team. At best, he should be playing backup in Charlotte or Oklahoma City on teams that are going nowhere fast. Because of this, Jason Terry will end up playing the role of backup point guard, which is, as noted above, a horrible solution. All in all, I have a lot of questions about the direction of the franchise and the moves (or lack of moves) made in the off season. It saddens me to think that Dirk Nowitzki's prime may be wasted on a team that's too good to land in the lottery where it might get some real help but not good enough to truly contend for a title. As the season progresses, I have a feeling the likelihood of major moves, such as trading away Jason Kidd and his expiring contract, will increase.
As much as it pains me to say it, I have to agree with many members of the national media in asserting that the Mavericks window of opportunity for a championship has indeed closed. It's been a great run, an exciting run, a run that SHOULD have produced a title, if not two. And that's not to say that I think the Mavs will miss out on the playoffs altogether. In fact, I think they might surprise a few people and finish with 50 plus wins and in the 5th or 6th playoff spot this season. I think they are far from the decrepit, old, worthless team they've been portrayed as and it's possible that they could even make some noise in the playoffs. But in the end, I don't see this team, as constructed, making a serious run for a championship. My hope is that, should that happen, next off season will be the one in which Cuban recognizes the issues the team has and makes the changes needed. Otherwise this continues to be a slowly downward sliding cycle of mediocrity.
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