Early Exit For Duke

My beloved Duke Blue Devils took an early exit the NCAA tourament yesterday, making it two years in a row the team has failed to reach the Sweet Sixteen and four years since it has made a Final Four. I found myself torn while watching. On the one hand, I expect great things from the Blue Devils every single year. Losing in the second round is not what Duke does. At the same time, however, I have to admit that what this team accomplished through the season was far more than what I expected at the beginning. Despite having only one senior and not a single player standing over 6-8, the Devils stayed in the A.P. Top 5 most of the season and finished with only 6 loses, a season most schools would dream of. When the year started, I made it quite clear that I knew this team was built for 2009, not 2008. Still, as the year progressed I began to get cauitiously more and more excited about what this team could do in the Tournament. There are four keys to NCAA tournament success and the Devils had three of them:

1. Great Guard Play - Guards trump big men in college ball and a solid core of guards can make up for a multitude of sins once Tourney time rolls around. Duke had as strong, though not as flashy, a group of guards as just about anyone in the nation. Greg Paulus shows flashes of Bobby Hurley and can absolutely rain from deep. Jon Scheyer is a smart player who seems to make every little play that needs to be made. Demarcus Nelson has great athleticism and a knack for picking up his play in the clutch. And frosh Nolan Smith brought some excitement and athleticism to the point guard spot that Duke has lacked since Chris Duhon graduated.

2. Free Throw Shooting - Close games come down to free throws and no one in NCAA history shoots free throws better than Duke, year in and year out. If you can get to the line and make your shots, you can stay in any game. Likewise, if you can't make your free throws, eventually you'll find yourself at home watching the championship game instead of playing in it (just watch Memphis choke it away next weekend).

3. Defense - Defense is a staple of Duke basketball and this year was no exception. Their perimeter defense was some of the best in the country and despite not having anyone with any size inside, the Devils managed to protect the rim pretty successfully. Paulus, Gerald Henderson, Nelson, Scheyer, and Kyle Singer can get after any team in the country defensively.

And so I had started to allow myself to think that my low expectations at the beginning of the season were unfounded and Duke had a pretty good shot at making a run at this thing. Only I forgot about "Key to Success" #4:

4. A Go To Player - No matter how good your defense is, no matter how strong your guards are, no matter how well you execute at the free throw line, at some point you have to have a guy that WILL score a bucket when you need it most and the Blue Devils lack that player. Perhaps if Josh McRoberts hadn't foolishly jumped to the NBA last year he would have been it. Perhaps Gerald Henderson will be that next year. But as for right now, the Devils didn't have "That Guy." "That Guy" can be shooting 1-20 from the floor but when your team absolutely MUST have a bucket, he gets it. UNC has it in Tyler Hansborough. Memphis has Derrick Rose. Texas has DJ Augustin. Tennessee has Chris Lofton. One great player can carry a college team to a title if the surrounding cast just gives him a little support. Duke lacked that player and ultimately, as they continued to hoist long three pointer after long three pointer, that missing piece turned out to be the difference between a potential Final Four run and a second round loss.

Duke has a fantastic foundation. Only one player is graduating and none of Duke's underclassmen seem capable of moving on to the NBA just yet. Henderson showed flashes of brilliance during the Tourney and another year of maturity could turn him into the player he is capable of being. They have another very strong recruiting class coming in, including a dynamic scoring shooting guard that should give the offense a boost. So while I continue to bleed black and blue, and early losses stick in my craw, I hold up the 2009 team as the one that is likely to get to put Duke back on top where they belong.